Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.016972 0.019237 0.021712 0.024621 0.027951 0.031648 0.036072
2024-10-06 0.013730 0.016882 0.020636 0.025452 0.031490 0.038838 0.048503
2024-10-13 0.011269 0.014610 0.018822 0.024548 0.032177 0.042054 0.055912
2024-10-20 0.009725 0.013163 0.017699 0.024167 0.033227 0.045574 0.063861
2024-10-27 0.008379 0.011759 0.016395 0.023279 0.033342 0.047675 0.069922
2024-11-03 0.007830 0.011364 0.016388 0.024136 0.035928 0.053439 0.081856
2024-11-10 0.007316 0.010945 0.016276 0.024782 0.038215 0.058942 0.093991
2024-11-17 0.006862 0.010556 0.016147 0.025359 0.040410 0.064479 0.106783
2024-11-24 0.006266 0.009883 0.015507 0.025041 0.041107 0.067647 0.115965
2024-12-01 0.005769 0.009313 0.014966 0.024809 0.041889 0.070986 0.125770
2024-12-08 0.005339 0.008810 0.014480 0.024609 0.042678 0.074377 0.136009
2024-12-15 0.005099 0.008600 0.014455 0.025182 0.044860 0.080412 0.151813
2024-12-22 0.004743 0.008168 0.014029 0.025035 0.045771 0.084327 0.164253
2024-12-29 0.004581 0.008062 0.014161 0.025911 0.048680 0.092308 0.185817
2025-01-05 0.004167 0.007470 0.013371 0.024988 0.048041 0.093355 0.193282
2025-01-12 0.003872 0.007067 0.012889 0.024599 0.048396 0.096381 0.205265
2025-01-19 0.003538 0.006564 0.012178 0.023694 0.047610 0.096980 0.212006
2025-01-26 0.003455 0.006530 0.012353 0.024567 0.050570 0.105709 0.238126
2025-02-02 0.003351 0.006446 0.012422 0.025226 0.053139 0.113876 0.264055
2025-02-09 0.003245 0.006350 0.012457 0.025813 0.055609 0.122089 0.291225
2025-02-16 0.003052 0.006062 0.012081 0.025489 0.056019 0.125676 0.307480
2025-02-23 0.002883 0.005810 0.011760 0.025253 0.056600 0.129717 0.325430
2025-03-02 0.002729 0.005580 0.011466 0.025049 0.057232 0.133941 0.344437